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March 31, 1999
POPULATION
PENNSYLVANIA'S POPULATION
PROJECTIONS (1930-2020)
Pennsylvania was the 5th most
populous state in the nation with 12,050,000 people in 1993. By 2000, it's
projected to be the 5th most populous state with 12,296,000 people, and by
2020 the 6th most populous with 12,656,000 people.
Over three decades, the state's
net population increase is expected to total 606,000 or the 30th highest
in the nation, while its rate of population change at 5.0% is expected to
rant 50th. From 1993 to 2000, the state would have a net increase of
246,000 people, the 24th highest in the nation. 4.7% of the nation's
population resided in the state in 1993 (ranked 5th), compared with 4.5%
in 2000 (ranked 5th), and 3.9% in 2020 (ranked 6th).
Pennsylvania is expected to add
343,000 people to its population through international migration between
1990 and 2020, placing it 12th among states. The state is projected to be
ranked 43rd in net internal migration (-213000 persons) between 1993 and
2020. During the 1990-2020 period, Pennsylvania could have 4,522,000
births and 4,028,000 deaths. The state could be ranked 7th in births and
5th in deaths. It would rank 27th in terms of its natural increase
(births minus deaths).
The most notable shifts in
population will continue to occur in the Central Pennsylvania corridor
along Routes 81, 83, and 322 and in the greater Pittsburgh and
Philadelphia areas. In part this will be driven by net jobs gains in
these geographic regions. The new jobs, if the current trends continue,
will be concentrate in technology and warehousing/distribution
industries. Approximately two-third of the nation's population is located
within eight hours of the state, making it ideal for these types of
businesses.
Pennsylvania still has the
largest rural population in the United States and the second oldest
population, next to Florida. The Commonwealth is actively campaigning for
new industries that will attract a younger population.
Population
1950:
10,498,012
1960:
11,319,366
1970:
11,800,766
1980: 11,864.720
1990: 11,882,842
1992(Estimate): 11,988,937
1994(Estimate): 12,058,380
1996(Estimate): 12,056,112
Municipalities
Number of Municipalities circa
1990: 2,584
% Municipalities Over 10,000
Population: 7.9%
% Municipalities (5,000-9,999)
Population: 12.0%
% Municipalities (2,500-4,999)
Population: 19.1%
% Municipalities (1,000-2,499)
Population: 30.0%
% Municipalities (500-999)
Population: 16.7%
% Municipalities (<500)
Population: 14.4%
Age
Estimated Population circa 1994:
2,052,410
% Population Under 10 Years:
13.4%
% Population (10-14 Years Old):
6.5%
% Population (15-19 Years Old):
7.0%
% Population (20-29 Years Old):
13.8%
% Population (30-39 Years Old):
15.4%
% Population (40-59 Years Old):
23.6%
% Population (60-64 Years Old):
4.5%
% Population (65 and Older):
15.8%
Types of Households
Number of Households circa 1990:
4,495,966
% Married Couples with children:
25.2%
% Married Couples without
children: 30.5%
% Male Headed
Households: 3.3%
% Female Headed Households:11.3%
% Single Person Households: 25.6%
% Non-Households: 4.2%
POPULATION GROWTH FROM 1980-1990
The following counties are ranked
in the 10.01% and greater boost in population during 1980-1990:
Adams County
Bucks
County
Chester
County
Lancaster County
Monroe County
Perry County
Pike County
Union County
Wayne County
PROJECTED GROWTH RATES FROM
1980-2000
The following counties are
projected to increase in population (10.01%):
Adams
Armstrong
Berks
Bucks
Butler
Centre
Chester
Clarion
Clearfield
Cumberland
Fulton
Greene
Indiana
Juniata
Lancaster
Lebanon
Monroe
North Hampton
Perry
Pike
Potter
Snyder
Union
York
Susquehanna
Pennsylvania will have nearly
200,000 more residents in the year 2000 than it had in 1990.
Southcentral and Northeast
Pennsylvania had the fastest population growth between 1990-1995. The
following information was received from the Center for Rural Pennsylvania:
"From 1980-1990, the rural population of Pennsylvania grew by just over
4%, from 4.9 million to 5.1 million. This has been a continuing reversal
of the decline in rural population which occurred in the 1950s and 60s.
The following table lists the Rural Pennsylvania population by region from
1980-1990:
REGIONS
1980 1990 CHANGE
Total
4,856,459 5,056,039 4.11%
Southeast
511,702 580,047 13.34%
Northeast
987,120 1,072,038 8.60%
Southcentral
912,240 1,101,489 10.77%
Central
829,787 838,217 1.02%
Southwest
912,266 879,430 -3.60%
Northwest
703,344 675,818 -3.91%
Employment By Occupation
# Persons Employed 16 years and
older 1990: 5,434,532
% Employed in Professional/Mgmt.
Jobs: 25.2%
% Employment in White Collar
Jobs: 31.7%
% Employment in Service Jobs:
13.0%
% Employment in Blue Collar Jobs:
30.1%
FAMILY CHANGES
According to the Statistical Data
book from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, traditional families are
declining. The following information dictates the differences in family
living across the state.
Children 18 and under: 82% have
working mothers
Raising Children:
1.2 million men are raising
children by themselves
6.6 million females are raising
children by themselves
3.0 million grandparents are
raising children
By the year 2000, 85% of new
workers will be minorities, women, and immigrants. Problems will exist
with social security benefits and younger generations will have to deal
with possibilities of not having social security.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
The Population group discussed
population shifts in the Commonwealth during past few decades and expected
changes in the future. The population group noted the shifts from the
cities to suburban to rural areas as outlined in the research material.
Family changes were covered as they related to a changing populous. The
traditional two parent family continues to change. Because of the makeup
of today’s families less time is available for any volunteer activities.
Commitments to community groups, like emergency services, are declining.
Economics plays a major role in our society as well.
Employees often travel greater
distances to work. These longer commutes make it difficult to balance
family and community needs. Cultural changes in our population have
impacted emergency services.
Today, the firehouse of old may
not be the social center of the community. While a dramatic increase in
minority populations has occurred, many local emergency service groups
have not kept up with these important changes. Even more cultural changes
in the future must be anticipated as emergency services cope with the
changing fabric of the Commonwealth’s communities.
The group recommended:
1. Plan for consolidation- local
level planning for emergency service consolidation and regionalization
should be a top priority. Local emergency service leaders must develop a
positive dialogue with their local government to help plan for the future.
2. Plan for population shifts-
knowing the dramatic shifts in our population over the past several
decades will help us prepare for even more changes in the future.
3. Public perception- emergency
services should strive to change the public perception that response
groups and agencies are homogeneous.
4. Renew desire of emergency
services as a community leader and community center- local emergency
service and community leaders should strive to make firehouse, rescue
squad or ambulance service a focal point in the community.
EMERGENCY ACTIONS
Information provided in this
section was received from the Pennsylvania State Fire Commissioner, Mr.
Dave Smith.
Each county within the
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has a County Emergency Operations Plan. The
plan consists of ranking the "threats" or problems as either a threat
assessment or a resource industry. Flooding remains at the top for
Pennsylvania due in part to flood plains. Areas such as Philadelphia have
a concern with Hazardous Materials and other areas because of high traffic
volume and cargo in and out of the city.
Pennsylvania has a PIERS
(Pennsylvania Incident Emergency Report System) program. This program
evaluates the unmet needs that each county is most likely facing or would
have in the event of an emergency. Unmet needs would consists of the
following: helicopters on a state emergency plan, Liaison Officers (EPLO).
These officers control the resources from individual agencies. Any
Disasters that may occur under this plan evaluate life saving/imminent
dangers.
The general hierarchy for
emergencies are regarded in the following order: local, county, area,
Commonwealth, Federal.
The following listing gives a
small detail of what appears in the PIERS booklet:
1. Hazardous
Materials (HAZ-MAT)
-Explosion
-Natural Gas Explosion
-Natural Gas Leak
-Pesticides
-Pipeline Break/Leak
-Tank Leaks
-Waste Material
-Water Pollution
2. Petroleum
Products
-Diesel Fuel Spills
-Gasoline Spill
-Heating Oil Spill
-Kerosene Spill
-Oil Sheen/Slick
-Oil Spills
-Pipeline Break/Leak
-Tank Leaks
3. Fire
-Explosion
-Firefighter Deaths
-Mine Fires
-Structure Fires
-Wild Fires (greater than 500 acres)
4. Adverse/Severe
Weather
-Drought
-Heavy Snow
-High Winds
-Hurricane
-Ice Jam
-Landslide
-Lightning
-Severe Thunderstorms
-Tornado
5. Floods
-Flash Floods
-Floods
6.
Nuclear/Radiological
-Event of Potential Public Interest
-Plant Emergency Action Level
-Radiological Transportation Accident
-Radiological Waste
-Radiological Transport Notices
-Theft or Loss of Radiological Source
7. Utility
Emergency
-Dam Failure
-Energy Shortages
-Power Failure
-Telephone Failure
-Watermain
Breaks
-Water Storage
8. Transportation
Emergency
-Aircraft Accident
-Aircraft Crash
-Aircraft Overdue
-Road Closure
-Ship/Barge Aground
-Train De-Railment
-Vehicle Accident
9. Civil
Disorders
-Hostage Situation
-Mobilization of PSP or National Guard
-Prison Break/Disturbance
-Riots
10. Terrorist Activity
-Bomb Threats
-Hostage Situation
-Sabotage
11. Search and Rescue
-Cave and Well
-Civil Air Patrol Authorization
-Collapsed Building
-Missing Aircraft
-Missing Persons
12. Evacuation/Shelter in
Place
-All Evacuations/Sheltering of 25
or More Residences/Businesses
13. Medical Services
Emergency
-Evacuation (Patients)
-Fire
-Outbreak of Disease
-Strike
14. Other Events and
Special Procedures
APPARATUS SURVEY
RECOMMENDATIONS:
The Emergency Actions group
reviewed recent data collected from the Apparatus Survey. The group
recommended:
1. Annual third party testing of
all aerial equipment- aerials should be tested by a third party agency
like the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation.
2. Modify requirements for the
Volunteer Loan Assistance Program- current state requirements make it
nearly impossible to secure loans for used apparatus. Change law and
regulations as proposed by the Statewide Advisory Board.
3. Apparatus replacement
schedule- local emergency service leaders, in conjunction with their
local government, should prepare plans for future apparatus purchase for
at least the next ten years.
4. Mandatory minimum driver
standards & licensing- criteria should be developed for mandatory minimum
standards for emergency service vehicle drivers and licensing.
EDUCATION
Education in Pennsylvania is
being impacted by such diverse factors as technology, local budgeting,
state and federal program focus, and local constitutent concerns. In July
1997, a focus group of teachers and administrators discussed the
anticipated changes they see in schools over the next 20 years. The group
noted that the educational arena is continuing to see slow, but planned,
changes in quality assessment and education structure; changes in
families, which are having an educational impact; educational skill
changes and life safety requirement changes.
One of the major points the group
made was that education is being strongly influenced by information
technology. Interactive teaching already starting, using CD rom and the
internet, as well as local school computer networks. Teachers are sharing
lesson plans and support materials and students are conducting research
and joint-action projects with students in other schools and districts.
Distance learning, particularly
in the form of video conferencing is producing financial and educational
benefits, as schools and districts can share teachers and develop
interactive teaching methods simultaneously. The technology applications
are introducing more independence in learners at lower grade levels and is
forcing more facilitating by teachers in a mentoring/guidance types of
learning environment.
However, technology also is
creating difficulties, particularly in keeping up with technology and with
concerns about developing a statewide system that can be consistent and
compatible among the Commonwealth's districts. New curriculum and lessons
must be electronically oriented, which implies that fire safety
information should be moving toward interactive games as a tool, and that
narrow fire/burn safety programs should be broadened in to life safety
skills that can be incorporated across the curriculum spectrum.
Schools also are emphasizing
personal responsible and practical life skills.
Lessons are being incorporated
that teach students how to get along and work together.
Application of these types of
lessons is being tested through community service requirements. Although
these programs still face legal challenges, their goal is to include
"school to work" cooperation experiences with community agencies and
groups. There even are programs for individualized developing an plan for
each student to volunteer during evening hours
Along with increasing involvement
in the community, schools are revisiting their own structures and
schedules. High schools are becoming schools within a school where the
emphasis on "going to college" is decreasing and training is new
standard. There are project connections that make use of the school all
day and in the evening, as well as using the facilities year round. Many
of these modifications will make high school, over the next 20 years, look
more like the colleges of today.
Many of these changes comes from
family changes. Dual income families and single parents have had an
impact on industry, especially around children's school and parents work
schedules. Many people do not take traditional summer vacations and many
have little time for community service. These changes are impacting
college level changes, as well, where international experience is
increasing, as are ties with international businesses. Lifelong learning
is being driven by adults that need to re-tooled and be re-skilled for new
jobs and industries. Consequently, liberal arts programs are moving
toward vocational technology and schedules are more flexible.
Schools also continue to grow in
a sense that they can't teach everything. There is more emphasis on
thinking, research, and becoming an informed citizen. These means that
there needs to be an integration of fire and life safety skills at
certain learning levels. There is an added importance to the volunteer
fire company because it offers community service options.
Governor Ridge is supporting more
technology in the Commonwealth's classrooms. Project Link to Learn
places an emphasis on conferencing and partnerships with school
districts. This project will encompass such areas as having training
sessions for teachers so that they will become familiar with the material
in the Project and know exactly how to use the material.
The project will support needed
knowledge to help with technology investments and allow computers to be
used frequently by students and teachers to become familiar to students so
that they will be able to become more advanced in computer systems.
The Education group, reviewed
information on educating the public about emergency services and fire and
life safety.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. Statewide focus on fire
prevention and safety education- the Pennsylvania Emergency Management
Agency, through the Office of the State Fire Commissioner, should become a
focal point for fire prevention and safety. By collaborating with county
and local entities, fire prevention and safety concerns will be more
efficiently communicated and disseminated to the general public.
2. Share resources- local
emergency services, regional groups and state organizations, universities
and national programs should better utilize their knowledge and share
resources to coordinate a clear and consistent public safety message.
3. State Department of Education
role- the Commonwealth, through the Department of Education, should help
incorporate emergency services training like first aid, CPR, and emergency
responder basic training into every level of the educational process.
High school community service requirements must include local emergency
service programs.
GOVERNMENT
Over the past twenty years the
federal government has increasingly referred authority and responsibiltity
to the state level. Many state governments have subsequently passed more
of their authority to local government entites. Some political scientists
have termed this shift in authority as “devolution.” During a meeting
with state, county and local municipal leaders, the group consensus was
devolution would continue well into the 21st century. Some also expressed
concern that privitazation, which has occurred in many areas of
government, could greatly impact fire and emergency services. All agreed
that regional planning, whether done at the local or county level, was
hardly utilized by local emergency service organizations.
As government budgets become even
more constrained in the next century, local and state officials will look
for even more accountablity of public money in the future. Fire companies
and emergency services will face the same financial scrutiny of other
nonprofit and quasi-government entitities receiving tax monies. Local
emergency services constantly call for more government invlovlement in
financing and promoting thier concerns. Government leaders we met with,
expressed a strong willingness to keep an open and positive dialogue with
their local emergency services. However, they commented that many
emergency service groups need to improve their internal management
process.
The “c” word was discussed at
length. Consolidation has been the dity word in the fire service for many
years. With the advent of increasing financial pressures and personnel
shortages, many emergency services are considering consolidation and
regionalization of services. The dramatic increase in the cost of new
technology like fire apparatus, rescue tools and infared cameras, has
forced many emergency service leaders to explore consolidation issues.
Government leaders we interviewed recommended that the state encourage
fire companies to consider consolidation with financial incentives.
Codes regonalization-
impact on community
board established to look at
this
we want local control
contiguous municipalities-
greater taxing authority to public
Fire services -
strained and endangered
resources, but not broken
Which comes first govt or
emergency services?
Move toward greater
cooperation.
Institute should continue to
work with DCED to improve communication & cooperation.
Fire service "we are own worst
enemy"
competitive purchase, ie
apparatus
regional police & water
authors-- public demand, govt had to control & provide needs
scarce resources,
development issues
govt should help FD's plan for
the future
What are needs & goals,
objectives?
Performance
measurements/regional resources
How do you define "community"?
High growth areas on one side
and depressed conditions on the other & everything in between.
Group consensus that
"government" hasn't done enough.
Utilize county planning
process
In the next century, we will
have 67 counties, we will not have 2600 municipalities
Affects of other standards:
courts, OSHA, NFLSA, general
public, etc.
planning for service delivery
system to save current volunteer/combination system
hard choices- will cost
money, efficiency, burn out of volunteers, 3 people in station overnight
level of service- state role
in education & courts, may ease pressure for financial demands on local
organizations & governments
Physical education
credits=community service
Bad tax structure- tax reform
Fire service should be
involved in tax reform debate
Impact fees/land use
fire service needs to branch
out into these decisions
Model must be developed for
fire department community plan
wider share of tax base= 40%
of real-estate community & industrial pooled
Strategic plans-
get to county & other elected
officials
Not a management audit- a
model for any FD in PA to follow
Inventory process
county comprehensive plan data
individual needs
strategic goals/objectives
EMS billing
Professional public manager-
use those abilities for emergency services- must be major part of planning
process
Part of planning process must
include level of resources, level of risks, define service that is
available, coordinate, organize, plan & implement
RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. Local planning process- emergency services should
be intricately involved in the local government planning process on issues
such as building codes, land use, and hydrant placement.
2. Increase county role- county government should
take a more active role in helping local government and local emergency
services, through the county planning process, to coordinate the emergency
response structure. Only a regional perspective can be used for future
planning of emergency service communications, utilizing quality equipment
and facilities with limited resources and improved emergency responder
training opportunities.
3. Funding- emergency services offer “free labor” in
90% of our Commonwealth’s municipalities. Local government should be
specifically charged with meeting their inherent responsibility to
properly fund facilities, equipment and training.
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